Interpreting if Aerobic capacity has improved?
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Jack213.
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August 12, 2025 at 12:49 pm #140571
Jack213
ParticipantI have recently done two AeT treadmill tests, 9 weeks apart, and an AnT test and have a few questions on how to interpret the results.
Background: (Male, 34yo) I’ve been an active outdoor person for 7 years – mountaineering, rock climbing, trail running, backcountry skiing and hiking. I regularly do large objectives, 12-15 hours in the mountains, and am doing some sort of long run/hike/rock climb every weekend like 2-3 hour trail runs, 5 hour easy hikes, or alpine approaches to glacier climbs or rock climbs. These activities feel pretty good and I’m not dead tired afterwards so I like to think I have some level of aerobic fitness. Twelve months ago I took a serious fall while scrambling and broke my arm and multiple vertebrae and had zero activity for 4 months. I gradually worked back up and after 6 months I was able to catch the second half of the ski season and did lots of backcountry skiing. Since then I’ve been very fortunate to recover and complete a few big objectives like a 20 mile trail run, skied Mt Hector in the Canadian Rockies, and I’m rock climbing harder than I was before the injury.
When I felt like I was back to full time activity I decided to assess where I was aerobically, so the first AeT test in May (10 months post-accident) was on a treadmill at 11:19 min/mile, at 2% incline. I used a Garmin chest strap to record heart rate. After a 15 min warmup on the treadmill, I ran continuously for an hour. The first 30min average HR was 143bpm and the second 30min average HR was 150bpm. 150/143 = 4.9% drift. Therefore I set my top of Z2 at 143bpm.
In Feb this year, I did an AnT test while skinning uphill. Following this article (https://evokeendurance.com/resources/our-latest-thinking-on-aerobic-assessment-for-the-mountain-athlete/), I just went as hard as possible for the entire hill, climbing 1,250ft in 31:08 so 2,400ft/hr. Average HR over the 30 min was 171bpm.
After these two tests, my AnT/AeT was 171/143 = 120%, therefore leading to self-diagnosing ADS. I decided to do 6 weeks of very structured aerobic training to see if I could improve my AeT – I did every road and trail run in Z1/2 using the Garmin chest strap. During these 6 weeks, I averaged 6.5 hours of running per week spread out over 3-4 runs per week with 91% of the time spent in Z1/2, and 9% in Z3 according to Trainingpeaks. There were a couple hikes and bike rides as well as a long 10-hour multi-pitch sport climbing day during that period, and if I include all aerobic activities I spent 9.5 hours per week in low-intensity training with 92% in Z1/2.
During these six weeks, I was also going rock climbing 3 times per week and strength training twice per week. The strength sessions were 15-20 min each and at a pretty low intensity because of my injury and I’m increasing the deadlift & squat weights very slowly. All-in-all, I was doing some form of activity 7 days per week, varying in intensity with one short & easy 30-45 min flat road run one per week, a couple 1hr runs, and one long 2-3hr run on the weekend. I took one rest week in Week 4 with a total of 6 hours of activity at a reduced intensity for running, climbing, and lifting. While doing all this training I was feeling very good and energized and not feeling any soreness/tiredness into the following day. Honestly it was feeling pretty easy.
After the six weeks, I took two days of rest and I did another AeT test at the same gym (unfortunately the same treadmill as the first test was occupied), and at the same pace and incline. Result was 4.8% drift (152bpm/145bpm). So both of the HR numbers are 2 bpm higher than the first test at the same intensity.
Question 1: I interpret the 2 bpm difference in HR from the two AeT tests as just simple variation due to sleep/nutrition/stress/air temp/HR sensor variation and therefore cannot draw any meaningful conclusion. Should I conclude that my AeT was unchanged from test 1 to 2?
Question 2: I assumed that if my aerobic capacity had improved, then when I perform the test again at the same pace & incline then my HR would be lower and the drift would be lower, is that right?
Question 3: The lack of improvement of my AeT is rather disappointing, so what should I do differently? Should I simply continue the same training program for another 8-16 weeks and check again? Should I spend more focused time in Z2 road/trail runs with runs 6 or 7 days per week and less time spent rock climbing? Or should I incorporate one or two days of high intensity work like tempo runs and VO2 max runs?
Thank you for any feedback!
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