[bbarlin10]

I am trying to figure out a “fudge factor” for fitness baselines for older athletes in Training Peaks.  I want to climb Everest with a commercial expedition company during the 2024 season, however I am concerned that my fitness is still way below the threshold needed.  I am 65 and holding 80’s on TP. My AeT and AnT are within 10%.  This is after about 2 years of effort with a long history of aerobic and strength training (not always the correct training but consistent over the years). I am training about 12 hours per week to keep that number.  However, I feel that I must ramp up significantly to have the fitness necessary for Everest and I am trying to estimate what that will be in terms of TP Fitness Score (I’m an engineer and numbers keep me motivated).

In 2018 I summited Aconcagua and was training about the same 12 hours per week and struggled on summit day.  Back then I had no concept of using something like TP, so I don’t have any actual data.  I feel my fitness is better today, training the same number of hours, because my aerobic base is improved using Scott’s methodology.

Scott gives examples of what it takes to climb Denali and Everest. For Denali the benchmark is 75 in TP (putting aside the monster pack weights for a moment). I know from experience that even with my current score of 85, I could not climb Denali right now. When I summited in 2008, I was training about 20 hours per week and was 15 years younger. I would guesstimate that my fitness was approaching 120 in relative terms. For Everest the number given is 100 in TP, obviously well above where I am right now.

The question is, what is the fudge factor for Everest given my age? (Yes, I know it depends, lol). I believe the numbers in Scott’s baseline were for individuals much younger.  Based on my experience I would guess add 20-25% more to achieve the same results that someone in their 30s would and then add a factor for the technical difficulty.   Does this imply a special plan for my age, or do I just have to realize it is going to take much longer (and more hours/week) to get to my goals than a 30-year-old? Trying determine if 15 months until the 24-season is sufficient to get the fitness necessary for Everest.

[Mark Postle]

bbarlin,

These are good questions and complex ones for sure.  I have coached quite few Everest climbers and of course am always trying to related their CTL scores to their readiness and success.  As you touch on here you can make some conclusions between individuals with the same TrainingPeaks metrics but there is a ton of variability.  So many other factors weigh in heavily. The way I like to think about the CTL is to use it as a measure of progress and direction more than anything and as a VERY general measure of readiness.  The reality is that you are going to want to train up towards the limit of what your body can absorb and RECOVER from given your individual parameters.  Any more or less based on a CTL number will likely do you a disservice.  All that said I would add 2 things.  1) If you’re holding 85 steadily then its likely you can ramp up to something that peaks north of 120+ over a time period for a big climb.  2) 15 months is totally sufficient IMO.  If you have a reasonable training history and last 2 years have been consistent then that is plenty of time.  If you use that time wisely its unlikely that an additional year is going to move the needle dramatically from a strictly fitness perspective.   Hope that helps!

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