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Hey Scott,
This is fascinating, thanks for the level of detail. This brings up two questions for me.
1: You say that AeT is 2-2.5. Do you think that 3 sets of 5km actually give a coach a good estimate of where a runner will be for the majority of a 42k race? Seems to me that if someone is pushing 2.7 after 5km (reliably above AeT) you would expect them to be above 3.0 and probably pushing towards 4.0 (stand in for AnT) for a significant portion (>50%) of the race. And those runners are almost certainly spending something like the last 10% of the race well above 4.0.
My second question is a bit off-topic but brought up by the data in this. You’re describing a huge mismatch in HR and lactate. Does this give you pause in leaning so heavily on heart rate in training? If you have athletes that can be at 90% of Max HR and still safely at or below AeT, it seems to me that RPE would be way more reliable than HR or HRR. Maybe this phenomenon is only present in elites? Though in untrained people I think you can see very high heart rates (90%+) that don’t seem to be accompanied by a similarly high lactate level. Thanks for any thoughts.