Reply To: Pre-race opposition analysis/research

Tomas:
Thanks for writing in with your question. It is an interesting approach that I have heard of being used in such detail. I tell my athletes to focus on what they can control, themselves and not on their competitors, whom they can’t control. Say you beat one fo your traditional rivals. Did you beat him because you had a great race or was it because he had a bad race. Say you had a the race of your life and still placed below others in the race that you expected to beat. That can color your perception of what was an outstanding race for you.
What if your rival, who normally fades late in the race o the uphills has changed his training and now is a beast on the hills and you are hanging back waiting to make your move. Especially in these ultra long races there is so much time elapsed and so many ups and downs I just don’t think that sort of calculation can be super successful. It doesn’t even work 100% in a 5000m on the track when there are far fewer unknowns.
I hope this helps,
Scott